Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is warning that Ethereum (ETH) could collapse in price despite rallying after a network upgrade.
In a new strategy session, Cowen tells his 785,000 YouTube subscribers that ETH could plummet by more than 57% from its value of $1,869 at time of writing.
Cowen believes that ETH will return “home,” a term he uses to describe the fair-value logarithmic regression trendline using “non-bubble data.”
According to Cowen, even though ETH had rallied and traded at the $2,000 level after the recent Shapella network upgrade, the smart contract platform will likely retest lows within the upper and lower bounds of the logarithmic regression chart.
“I would say that people are likely celebrating prematurely and there still is a very high risk that Ethereum could in fact return home.”
Cowen says the fair-value logarithmic regression trendline is currently at around $800. However, he says there is also a possibility for Ethereum to repeat a pattern in 2019 and 2020 when ETH dipped below the fair-value logarithmic regression trendline.
“Where is home? If you look back to where home was back in the summer of 2022 it was around $600. Now, it’s around $800. Okay, but also do note that when we were over here [in 2019 and 2020] we actually went below that fair value, which is that middle line. And the lower bound on the lower regression trendline is now at $574.
I’ve said many times I think the deep value zone on Ethereum if we can get it, is somewhere between $400 to $600. There’s of course no guarantee we go to those levels. If we go back to $700 or $800 we’ll already be back home, but it is something that you should think about is that this could be an eventual outcome to at least consider.”
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